Has YA Fiction Reached it Peak?

Each month, we will answer writers' business-related question about the YA category from an MBA’s and consumer product manager's perspective. If you have a question you’d like us to tackle in an upcoming post, please leave it in the comments section.

This month’s question: has YA fiction reached it's peak? What does it mean to be in a mature category?

In short, yes, I believe YA fiction is quickly approaching its ceiling. But before I tackle why I think this is true, let’s talk about what it means to be in a mature category.

Every product category has a life cycle, typically mapped out in four key stages: introduction,

growth, maturity and decline.

In the early stages of a category’s life cycle, there is only headroom to grow because very few people are using the product--essentially, there's no where to go but up.

But there is no such thing as infinite growth, even for consumable goods, so every product category will eventually reach the point at which it cannot bring in any more new users*, also known as maturity.

Let’s use laundry detergent to explain category maturity**

Prior to the introduction of liquid detergent, powdered detergent was the dominant form. When liquid Tide launched into the marketplace, there were some people who immediately tried it (early adopters), while others continued to use powder detergent either because they hadn’t yet learned about liquid or the benefits didn’t yet appeal to them. But, as liquid detergent gained popularity and notoriety, more and more people began to adopt this form of detergent over their other alternatives. This lead to a period of rapid expansion where Tide saw double-digit growth numbers, and became the dominant detergent in the marketplace.

What happens when a new product category gains popularity? Other people want in on the action. So, other detergent manufacturers launched their own liquid detergents, often with different benefits or lower prices to attract those consumers who either hadn’t yet entered the liquid detergent category, or to lure liquid Tide buyers over to them.

This trend continued until every household willing to use a liquid detergent was using a liquid detergent. At this point, the category had matured. But maturity does not mean that a category is dead, it simply means that a category has reached its growth ceiling. (Note that there are other ways to drive category growth beyond bringing in new users, which I will discuss in a later post.)

In the laundry example, people still need to do their laundry, so they will continue to buy detergent. But all of those willing to adopt the category have adopted, so category growth on a year over year basis flattens. In most instances categories will see declines before the category stabilizes, because some consumers will go back to what they used prior to trying the liquid detergent.

This is your classic product life cycle, and it plays out this way for almost every single category.

So how did this play out for YA and what does that mean for writers?

Harry Potter was a huge catalyst for the growth in YA fiction. The popularity of that franchise caused many curious consumers to pick up J.K. Rowling’s books who previously spent their entertainment hours elsewhere—reading adult fiction, watching TV, riding their bikes, playing video games etc. While consumers waited for the next installment of Harry Potter to release, many of them began exploring the Juvenile fiction section of their book store, looking for similar books to tide them over, resulting in even more of their entertainment hours going to Children's fiction.

Then came Twilight, The Hunger Games, and Divergent, which also drove new readers into the YA category. Many of those readers also sought out similar titles while they waited for the next installment to be released and started pursuing YA books more broadly.

Movies aided to the growth and popularity of YA—they increased awareness of YA further and recent releases of movies like The Fault in Our Stars, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, The Maze Runner, If I Stay, etc. have only added to the massive category expansion.

As YA grew, more publishing houses began dedicating time and resources to producing more YA titles so they could capitalize on this growth. New, smaller publishing houses emerged who also wanted in on the action, as did self-published authors, flooding the market place with a myriad of YA genres, titles and options for readers.

But remember: there is no such thing as infinite growth.

There are only 24 hours in a day, and consumers can only spend so many of those hours on entertainment, and only so many of those hours reading. Time is not expandable, and therefore book consumption has a ceiling.

While many readers will stick with the YA, some less loyal readers will return to their previous forms of entertainment or explore new, alternate forms of entertainment. This could mean they read within another category or it could mean they stop reading and binge watch Orange is the New Black instead. The point is that they will not read as much YA as they once were, which will be evidenced by slowing sales vs. previous periods.

In short, YA experienced an expansive period of growth thanks to the popularity of certain titles and
Hollywood’s attention. But  I predict that we will see flattening growth trends in the next 1-2 years, simply based on the fact that sales cannot grow forever unless there's a population boom to fuel it. And when we see consecutive months of slowing year-over-year sales, this will be the sign that the  category has hit its ceiling.

So what does this mean for us writers?

As I said, mature does not mean a category is dead. People are still reading YA titles and will continue to read YA titles, they just may not read as many or there may not be as many people reading them as there were in the hay day.

It also means that publishing houses may scale back on their acquisition and support of YA titles so they can shift resources to other places that have stronger tailwinds and larger growth potential. Which, if I’m being totally honest, will make it harder for YA titles to get published than it has been in previous years.

Some smaller houses or divisions within larger publishing houses that emerged to capitalize on the growth trend may disappear or scale back, and some aspiring and even published authors may decide to stop writing YA altogether because the income opportunity is less than it was in previous years. (I'll talk in a later post about how the increase in available titles exacerbates author income challenges.)

You can change it by writing the next kick ass book.

Unlike consumable products like detergent, entertainment trends are cyclical and often come back around. All it takes is one new book to tip the scales back in favor of YA. And as I said, people are still going to read YA. There will still be debut New York Times success stories like Victoria Aveyard’s Red Queen. There will still be talented writers making livings as YA authors. Who’s to say you can’t be one of them?

Even in the classic product life cycle model, products can have second expansion waves that result from  innovation or product line extensions. So really all YA needs is for someone to write the next big thing.

The only surefire way to guarantee you won’t sell any books is to stop writing. So get out there and write something amazing. Because you could be the person who starts the next big YA title wave (pun intended).

Happy writing!

*For simplicity, let’s say that maturity means a category does not bring in any more new users. In reality, a category may still bring in new users, but in a mature category the new users coming in do not offset the older users exiting the category. In the detergent example, an 18 year old may leave the house and start buying liquid detergent for the first time, making them “new” but there are likely an equal number of people exiting the category as the population ages, unless there has been a population boom.

**For simplicity, this example assumes Tide was the first liquid detergent to the marketplace and gained category leadership as a result, which is not how the detergent wars actually played out. I hope you'll forgive me taking a little creative license. :)

Stacy Stokes has a BBA from The McCombs School of Business, an MBA from The Wharton School of Business, and over ten years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry. When not writing, she is a brand marketer and strategist for a well-known consumer product manufacturer. Her debut novel, WHERE THE STAIRCASE ENDS, is available now.

Keeping It Real - Let's Give Them Something To Talk About

What happens on vacation stays on vacation or ends up on facebook or so the joke goes.  For writers though, what happens on vacation could very well end up in a novel!!

So vacations are not only restful, but can also be invaluable to a writer's growth.  Trips are a great way for writers to be spies and gather information on a new place.  Talking to or even just observing people expose writers to not only new ideas, but also new ways of speaking.  So that means writers can use vacations to help improve their ability to create interesting dialogue.

Other authors have done the same thing in the past.  Hemmingway, a master of dialogue, used his real life experiences to help create many of his stories.  He was a master at keeping his writing authentic and his dialogue sometimes reflects that reality.

So next time you go on a trip, get your gab on and see who responds.  And if you are shy, then that is okay too - just observe.

Once again dear writers, use your imagination, but remember to keep it real - just a little at least.  Have a great summer. Enjoy your life and have fun with your writing.  I hope to read about your stories one day.  Until then bon voyage!

Writer's Resource: Manuscript Wish List

Are you a querying (or soon to be querying) writer? If you've started compiling your agent query list (with QueryTracker, I hope), you know that matching your manuscript with the agents who are most likely to love it isn't for the faint of heart. I used to rely mainly on several blogs that would do detailed agent profiles, but my favorites haven't been updated in a while and the information is somewhat stale. This is a big deal, since what agents were looking for two years or even six months ago is probably not what they're looking for right now.

Luckily, I found a truly excellent resource to replace those blogs! Manuscript Wish List is the brainchild of agent Jessica Sinsheimer and writer KK Hendin. They took the idea of the #MSWL hashtag on Twitter (where agents and editors tweet things they wish they were seeing in their inbox) and expanded it to a whole website. While the tweets were limited to 140 characters (135, counting the hashtag), this site has whole paragraphs describing their wants in detail.

One of the best things about the site is its HUGE list of tags. Scroll down to the bottom of any page to see the list of tags that have been used on the posts. They are very specific and extremely helpful. For example, you'll find tags for "strong female protagonist," "steamy romance," and "difficult issues." There are also tags for comparable books, so you can even search for a similar type of story.

I found over a dozen agents that wouldn't have been on my list otherwise by using this site. I highly recommend it!

Keeping It Real - The Vacation Setting

It is summer time and that means vacations.  Regardless of whether the vacation is relaxing and reflective or fast paced and adventuresome, vacations are a great way for writers to keep it real.  These travels (even if they are only just across town) can expose writers to new experiences, provide writers with firsthand knowledge of new places, and enhance writers' powers of observations. Thus, trips are a great way for writers to develop settings that are rich and insightful.

Vacations, though not as extensive of research as living in certain places, can be invaluable to writers as they struggle to create settings that are alive. Trips often have the magical ability to awaken writers' senses. With all the new sights, sounds, and smells, writers are bound to break out of their routine and find new ways of expressing themselves.

I personally use vacations as inspiration for many of my settings.  Relaying on my firsthand knowledge of a place, aids my writing and helps me keep track of everything.  My son and I use National Parks as the setting for my middle grade adventure series and  we try to go to as many as we can. We love our research!!! It feels like cheating sometimes, but hey. . . whatever it take to keep it real, right?!

So, yes traveling really does help writers keep their writing real.  I know that I am not alone in this believe.  Take a look at Jack London's writings.  He is a descriptive writer who has drawn from his own experiences in the harsh Alaskan frontier to paint realistic and yet almost hostile settings that seem to work against his protagonist. His stories are so memorable because of his authentic knowledge of the environment. His settings are so alive that they are almost a character into themselves. Jack London is such a powerful writer because he kept it real and drew from his real life experiences.

So dear writers, this summer remember to keep it real.  Seek out those adventures, experience new things, observe people, and then write. Just remember to use your imagination, but do keep it a little real - just a little!  Happy trails!!

YA Book Pick: LUCKIEST GIRL ALIVE

Once a month, we choose an outstanding YA book to review. We want to spotlight books of interest to aspiring writers, as well as highlight some of our favorite books and authors!

This month's book pick is LUCKIEST GIRL ALIVE by Jessica Knoll. An interesting read since it walks the fine line between adult and YA fiction.  The protagonist is a 28 year old woman but spends half of the novel as her teenage self. 

Synopsis (from Goodreads):

As a teenager at the prestigious Bradley School, Ani FaNelli endured a shocking, public humiliation that left her desperate to reinvent herself. Now, with a glamorous job, expensive wardrobe, and handsome blue blood fiancé, she’s this close to living the perfect life she’s worked so hard to achieve.

But Ani has a secret.

There’s something else buried in her past that still haunts her, something private and painful that threatens to bubble to the surface and destroy everything.

With a singular voice and twists you won’t see coming, Luckiest Girl Aliveexplores the unbearable pressure that so many women feel to “have it all” and introduces a heroine whose sharp edges and cutthroat ambition have been protecting a scandalous truth, and a heart that's bigger than it first appears. 

The question remains: will breaking her silence destroy all that she has worked for—or, will it at long last, set Ani free?

First Line:

"I inspected the knife in my hand." 

This first line invokes so many questions.  Why does she have a knife in her hand?  What does she intend to do with it?  It sets a dark intention and tone and gives us insight into the protagonist.  She is one that is meticulous and pays attention to the objects and people around her...now. 

Highlights:

The surprise turn of events is definitely the highlight in the novel.  Without giving away too much, the event helps the reader to understand the character at a deeper level and to feel a level of empathy and understanding of why the character is who she is at the end of the day.  It turns what could be an unlikable protagonist to once that is complex and layered. 

Notes for Writers:

The writer has done a very good job of presenting a single protagonist's story using two distinct time periods in her life.  She deals with very serious issues in a way that does not appear flippant or irresponsible but impacts the way the protagonist has chosen to live her life and feels authentic to the suspense/thriller nature of the novel. 

One interesting highlight is the effective use of marketing for the novel that has propelled it to the New York Times Bestseller's List.  While the book is strong enough to stand on its own, the marketers have created buzz around the launch by tying it to recent successes such as Gillian Flynn's GONE GIRL.  There are striking differences between the two books and it's questionable how similar they really are, but regardless, LUCKIEST GIRL ALIVE has definitely benefited from these comparisons.  

A Good Read For:

Anyone who likes a good YA suspense/thriller with older characters and a touch of PRETTY LITTLE LIARS/GOSSIP GIRLS.

Keeping It Real - The Curious Lives of Boys

Writing a story that has a boy character?  Maybe a pesky younger brother?  Well then, welcome to my wonderful world of boy post.  Here's this months Top Tens.  Maybe you can get some ideas or inspirations.

 1. Hides food, even yummy, delicious gummy vitamins, in the couch cushions.
 2. Places furniture over spills (okay, I admit it. . .  I do that too)
 3. Bathroom humor is hilarious!!!!
 4. Very physical. Must be touching each other every blooming second of the day.  I think wrestling
      is their form of hugging.
 5. Video games.
 6. Burping is a form of communication.
 7. Eat food that falls on the ground.
 8. Video games again.
 9. Eat anything that looks like candy even if it is mom's birth control or a piece of broken black Lego
    on the floor next to the changing table (hello, what if that was something that fell out of your
    brother's diaper?)
10. Eat stuffing out of pizza crust and then use the crust as a straw.

Swearing in YA: Is it Worth It?

As I was reading over my current work-in-progress yesterday, I remembered that I'd included a fair amount of bad language. In my defense, this is an upper-upper YA (set in the summer after high school), and the main character is a boy who plays a lot of online video games. When I was writing his dialogue and that of his best friend, the swear words just flowed out.

But like other content issues like sex and violence, bad language in books intended for teenagers can be a hot-button topic. Although many young adults talk like that on a regular basis, that doesn't mean adults – who are often the ones buying them the books – want to encourage it or make it seem cool.

Personally, I like former literary agent Mary Kole's take on the subject: that using swear words is just a choice the writer makes or doesn't make. If the writing requires that word, that's the word that should be used. Would anyone buy that my two 18-year-old gamer friends don't drop a few (mostly mild) swear words when they get excited? I made the conscious choice to include those words because I thought it made the characters more authentic and relatable.

Of course, if you decide to go this route, you have to be prepared to deal with the consequences. Those who are trying to get their work traditionally published might run into problems at some imprints that prefer to keep their titles swear-word free. And once you are published, some librarians, schools, and booksellers may balk at carrying your book or recommending it to teens.

Do you include swear words in your YA writing?